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Thread: Formula Needed

  1. #1
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    Default Formula Needed

    Working on a new system, I want to work out the percentage a horse's odds drop by, say in-running.

    1st Odds 11.5
    2nd Odds 2.12

    The formula I've worked out goes like this...

    ((11.5-1) - (2.12-1)) / (11.5-1) x 100

    = 89.33%

    Am I right, or wrong?

    Many thanks for your help.

  2. #2
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    Default

    Personally I would say.

    You don't need to take one off if using decimal odds.. (100/2.12) - (100/8.69) which is a change in the % chance of winning.

    If you're look for back / lay type profit, assuming back at the higher price and lay at the lower price, what percentage of a 1 point stake would you make back, then I would say

    To calc the percentage profit

    ((Back odds - lay odds) / lay odds + 1) * 100 is the % profit

    Which in the above case is 442% of the original stake.

    Now it is early and the coffee hasn't blown the cobwebs away yet, so I could be way off base.

    Cheers

    Glen.

  3. #3
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    Thanks for fighting your way thru the coffee & cobwebs haze to look at this for me!

    Your % profit formula will help me when I get to the point of working out different ways to profit from the system.

    What I'm looking at at the moment is, how many high priced horses win when their odds drop by, say, 75%.

    So if at the off the Betfair price is 11.5, then 2 furlongs to the end of the race the price becomes 2.12, then I want to work out by what percentage the horse's price has dropped.

    There's no Trading involved by Backing then Laying, or Laying then Backing (well, not yet anyway!).

    I know the formula is: difference_between_the_two_odds / high odds x 100...

    ...but I'm not sure whether to take off the stake... ie, 11.5 minus 1, becomes 10.5
    Last edited by timevoyager; 23-09-2011 at 08:31 AM.

  4. #4
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    Default

    No, don't take the 1 off.

    The -1 is when dealing with bookmakers, not exchanges.

    Cheers

    Glen.

  5. #5
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    Default

    Thanks, Glen, have a couple of extra coffees on me ;~)

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