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  1. #1
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    Default Dutching as a Business

    Anyone interested in using Dutching to cover the market in major races can tool pick up a simple method on my blog site here.
    There are a few posts to dig out outlining how to form the basic Dutch Frame, etc.

    http://dutchingasabusiness.blogspot....20Ascot%202015

    The standard Live Early Bets info I will probably be moving into a members area. Free access to known visitors.
    You wont find everything covering the method I use but enough to develop your own approach.
    Quite a bit more of background info. is hidden away in archive area on this site. you would have to contact Yorkie for access.
    Attached Images Attached Images
    Last edited by tsiri; 21-06-2015 at 12:26 PM.

  2. #2
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    Hi All

    There seems very little information or new idea here these days? The forum was packed with good posts at one time?

    The traffic through my own blog has dropped away over the last 6 months through my lack of updates too.

    Here is the YTD update uploaded over the weekend.

    Dutching works and you can do it.


    YTD03june2017.png


    Intend to liven up again with more data and posts over the summer
    Last edited by tsiri; 04-06-2017 at 04:34 PM.

  3. #3
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    Very interesting thread. I've tried the mechanistic approaches with mixed results. I'm going to have to be much more skilled in the future. I'm using the speed rating numbers of Inform Racing but it is early days. I might be able to grasp and then apply your advice in the original thread.

  4. #4
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    Hi Pete

    I did a couple of full seasons tests on speed figures - including Inform racing.

    Fundementally even if they slightly outperform the market driven/ mechanical results it very difficult to match the profits.

    You up against.
    a) Inform does not cover Irish racing, so drastic reduction in volume of winnable bets.
    b) Similarly Irish raiders are not rated in the uk? A defect in the higher class races.
    c) If you take maidens First-time-out (unrated) favorities they contribute a long term strike rate around 38% off the speed ratings radar, but usually picked up by the market?

    In my own comparisons I couldn't say any of the commercial ratings outperformed the free ratings posted by Lawrence Taylor in ATR.
    I will be putting the live Dutch bets up on the blog during Royal Ascot (an annual test) I love.
    It would be interesting to compare the Inform racing results.

    Hope you pick up some useful info from the blog - or feel free mail me if you need info which isn't clear there.

  5. #5
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    Thanks Tsiri.
    I don't doubt you are correct. There are lots of us newcomers all repeating the same learning others have done before and moved on. I am realistic that all consistent profits will be low percentage stuff so spotting the real from the just variance takes the numbers and time you clearly have put in. Another strand was to combine approaches, such as trainer, jockey, course and speed ratings. This stuff has been around for years and so the market has likely accommodated it. The dutching becomes interesting because in essence that is what the bookies are doing , and they haven't gone away. Your approach is stretching my brain a little. I hope I can come back to you when I have had some experience of applying it.

  6. #6
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    Tsiri's approach stretches everyones brain Pete, something we can probably all do with :-)

  7. #7
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    Tsiri is hard to catch up with. He's already covered speed ratings in a January blog and then he is off on Target betting! Inform claim over 50% on their master scores. On some races they select most or all of the runners. Even then the best I can do is 60%. I managed 64% on the Last Time Out speed ratings but that is going to give a wide variance in losing runs and the prices seemed too small to generate an edge.
    Up until now I have largely stuck to handicaps for 4yo +, as they are exposed and predictable. Tsiri rules out handicaps. I suppose that being exposed the prices are unlikely to give an edge.
    I've gone from struggling to pick horses to struggling to pick races!

  8. #8
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    Target Betting -just to clear up what we talking about in my terms

    Using the later maiden at Haydock the first screen shot is the early Dutch Frame 4 runners
    So first screen shot is the standard equal return Dutch Frame. RH side shows our stake distribution.
    eqL01.png

    This second screen shot is with the Profit Targeted to the favorite - the remainder of the Dutch Frame backed to return break-evens.
    Redistributed stakes on RH side

    So for inst if you are a speed figure man you could say Target Bet the third in the market rather than the fav. if 3rd is clear top rated on your figures.
    Targ01.png

    My own Target betting is just simply KISS following favorities priced within a certain range, straight off the market.
    In this particular Maiden the fav' doesn't qualify for me as an additional Target Bet - so just an example.

    But in races I want to follow, such as the Grp. Ascot races next week, I may stray and say Target 2 or 3 of the frame in the more open races.

    (Total stake jumped from correct 486 while i fiddled with screen shot-ignore this, not part of calculation and field noted should be 10not 5 with feed on!!)

    I just got feedback the 4th in the market Ubercool is Informs Top rated on their speed figures. Here then is s the return on the Target Bet on the speed figure in the race with the other 3 no: in the frame backed to break even. Also we have the unraced scenario with currently second in the market supported Godolphin runner. Pretty well covers the outline in previous post?
    Ubercool.png
    Last edited by tsiri; 14-06-2017 at 12:48 PM. Reason: staking+addSpeedfigure shot

  9. #9
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    Looking good as usual tsiri :)
    Betting looks easy try and make profit long term !!

  10. #10
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    Thanks Tsiri. I think I'm not a speed man now. Saved me some trial and error. Studting your stuff carefully.

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