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  1. #1
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    Default Bethawk Analysis 07-06-16

    Hi

    I've emailed this out to all members but thought it would be worth posting to here too.

    May has been a rough month for most of the Bethawk systems so following on from the analysis email I sent out at the beginning of May here's another that brings things up to date.

    I'm going to go over each of the systems but all the figures are taken from the table below ( or from http://www.acebots.co.uk/downloads/s...is07-06-16.png if for some reason the image doesn't show) which gives a break down of the performance of each system over various time frames.

    Name:  System Analysis 07-06-16.png
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    __________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ _____

    Luxor 08

    Added to Bethawk on 21st July 2015, so approx 10 1/2 months, and showing a total of 88.14 pts since then for an average 8.21 per 30 days.

    What we need to look at with 08 is the recent form.

    The last 6 months have only given us 16.92 pts with the last 3 months making a loss of -4.24 pts.This means that of the 88.14 pts gained since last July, 71 of those were gained in the 4 1/2 months from July onwards. Certainly the recent performance is well below what historical data shows us although looking at just the data since last July does show a very up and down graph so maybe it's to be expected

    Not surprisingly the systems highest draw down came across April/May and maybe one to watch rather than use right now.

    Luxor 09

    Like 08 Luxor 09 was added on 21st July 2015 and unlike 08 has actually got better. A total of 63.75 pts since then for an average 30 day return of 5.94 pts may not seem much but looking at the trend, last 6 months 58 pts, last 3 months 34.85 pts shows the average 30 day return improving on both time frames, 9.51 pts & 11.49 pts respectively. Historical data suggests between a 30 day average of between 8.75 pts ( 12 months ) & 14.37 pts ( 24 months ) so perfectly in line with expectations.

    09 still had trouble with May but overall seems to be steady.

    Luxor 10

    Added a little later than 09 on 1st Sept 2015 but showing the same trends.

    A total of 239.75 pts since Sept gives a 30 day average of 25.69 pts. Historical 12 & 24 month data suggests a 30 day average of between 20.28 pts ( 12 months ) & 23.79 pts ( 24 months ) so since adding to Bethawk it's actually returned better than expected.

    Recent average 30 day results of 32.89 pts ( 6 months ) & 49.30 pts ( 3 months ) show it doing much better than should be expected, even in May showing a profit, but as always with systems doing better than they should be don't be surprised with a balancing period at some point, even if there appears to be no real sign of it yet.

    Luxor 14

    Oh dear!!

    In my last analysis email I suggested Luxor 14 was one to avoid at the moment and nothing has changed in the last month to suggest doing anything different.

    It's made a loss over each of the last 3, 6, & 12 month periods and also a loss since it was added to Bethawk on 3rd Sept 2015.

    Not a lot more to say about it really apart from avoid for now.

    Luxor 17

    Added later than Luxor 08 on 3rd Sept 2015 but showing all the same sort of signs.

    A total profit of 350.80 pts since Sept looks good with a 30 day average of 37.86 pts but more recent figures show a marked downturn.

    A 6 month 30 day average of 13.43 pts is still fine but a lot less then the average since Sept and the 3 month average of -9.94 pts continues the downward trend.

    I've mentioned before how all the selections in Luxor 17 are also placed by Luxor 19 so I can't really see any good reason to be using 17 right now based on current form.

    Luxor 19

    Again added on 3rd Sept 2015 and an excellent return since then of 569.50 pts giving a 30 day average of 61.46 pts.

    Historical data suggests between 48.21 pts ( 12 months ) & 40.00 pts 9 ( 24 months ) per 30 days so returns since adding to Bethawk have been much higher.

    Looking at the more recent figures 6 months gives us a 30 day average of 35.23 pts while 3 months drops that to 31.88 pts.

    These recent figures show us that there has been a drop in performance recently yet still returning a decent profit overall. May was a losing month, as for most of the systems, but with the last 3 months to date still returning 96.70 pts overall it still looks good long term.


    We are now onto the older systems which were added before the current start date of data in Bethawk so all figures are live.

    Venice 08.1

    I've said many times that venice 08.1 worries me simply due to the fact it can lay at odds up to 300, which on a losing bet can cause real damamge, yet the figures show it to be probably the most reliable system of the lot !!

    A 30 day average of 24.87 pts over the last 24 months, which remember are all live results after the system was added, gives a total of 605.20 pts.

    Average returns over 12, 6 & 3 months of 35.17 pts, 34.74 pts & 34.66 pts respectively show pretty remarkable consistency and also show the last 12 months have been better than the previous 12.

    Still managed to make a loss in May of course but as long as you can ride out the losing bets, and live with the high odds, then it continues to perform.


    The Back Systems

    I'm going to group all but Venice 17.1 of these together as the same thing can be said for them all and that is " why bother " ?

    Paris 07.1 - 30 day average - 12 months -6.44 pts, 6 months -6.84 pts, 3 months -8.81 pts

    Venice 10.2 - 30 day average - 12 months 0.01 pts, 6 months 1.30 pts, 3 months 2.94 pts

    Venice 18 - 30 day average - 12 months 1.00 pts, 6 months -0.74 pts, 3 months -0.57 pts

    Only Venice 10.2 showing any recent improvement but longer term just doesn't seem to return anything. The other two both showing recent loss without much earlier profit to say there's something to aim back to.

    Venice 17.1

    Recent performance is quite poor with 30 day average of -1.88 pts for 6 months and -1.47 pts for 3 months but older results do say there was something there not that long ago. Does seem to have started to pick up a few wins very recently though.

    24 month 30 day average of 10.10 pts and 12 month of 7.03 pts do show that it's more recent results that have dropped. It could be that due to the nature of the system and the odds it backs that a few good results could see it recover, or, it could have run out of steam with the indicators it uses to make selections not being as relevant as they once were. Time will tell.

    Conclusion

    So where does all this leave us and what should we use at the moment. Well:

    Luxor 08 - For now I would watch rather than use.

    Luxor 09 - Figures suggest one of the ones to use.

    Luxor 10 - Figures suggest one of the ones to use.

    Luxor 14 - Figures suggest one of the ones NOT to use.

    Luxor 17 - Use 19 instead unless you really want to use 17.

    Luxor 19 - Figures suggest one of the ones to use.

    Paris 07.1 - I wouldn't bother right now.

    Venice 08.1 - Figures suggest one of the ones to use if you can stand the possible lays at 300 ( doesn't happen often to be fair )

    Venice 10.2 - Only use if you think it can smooth the graph a little. Very few bets.

    Venice 17.1 - Has potential and has picked up a few wins of late. If you want a back system in your portfolio maybe this is the one to look at but can have pretty long losing runs.

    Venice 18 - Not going to cost you much but then maybe not going to win you much either, maybe another for smoothing the graph ?

    __________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ ____________

    Hopefully the figures in the table and the above thoughts on each system help when putting together your portfolio but what May proved was that Bethawk needs to viewed as long term to realise the profits data shows us is there.

    Any questions, comments, explanations required etc just let me know.

    Keith

  2. #2
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    Default Could this review be an annual event?

    Love the analysis Keith. I wonder if you do these summaries each year. I've been with Acebots since January 2017. Up until recently I was forever changing my portfolio choices. I believed I was acting rationally but really I was chasing the past. This long term evaluation you did in 2016 helps me to make better decisions. In the end I made a choice and put it on a VPS whilst trying to persuade myself not to tinker. Lowest point -186 ( not long after joining giving me the willies) In profit since mid February. Highest point 1630 (recently).

  3. #3
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    Default

    Hi Pete

    Simple answer - Yes I will :-)

    Longer answer - It's no secret that I've been having a bit of trouble with a long term health issue ( I sound like Diane Abbott lol ) which has meant that although I've been dealing with daily subscriber queries as normal, the other stuff, Facebook updates, updates on here etc, have taken a bit of a back seat. I have the table for big meetings to update from the Epsom Derby for example which I'll do when Ascot is finished and do both at the same time. So the answer is yes I will do an analysis like the one above for the last 12 months but it may be a few days before I get to it.

    Keith

  4. #4
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    Default

    Health comes first Keith. And you are better with numbers than Diane. People appreciate you more if they have to wait a little.

  5. #5
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    Default

    Awesome what were the total profits?

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